State of confusion

FROM the looks of it, America has no exit strategy to extricate itself from the disastrous war with Iran. US President Donald Trump has alternated between issuing bombastic threats to the Iranians, to claiming that peace was at hand, sometimes making a sharp U-turn within hours. This is not how responsible statecraft plays out.

In the past, he had threatened to destroy Iranian civilisation, while more recently he said the US was ready to use “Military Terror … not seen since World War II” against the Islamic Republic. In his latest pronouncement, the US leader has given Iran a “last chance” to choose between a “deal [or] total surrender”. The five-month-old war has shown that the Iranians have mostly remained unfazed by Mr Trump’s threats.

The chaos at the White House is understandable. Mr Trump jumped headfirst into the war on Feb 28 at Israel’s persuasion, without doing his homework. Perhaps if he had studied the mistakes his predecessors had made in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, he would have refrained from launching a new war. But the US leader is not known for deep reflection, not even on critical issues.

There are reports — officially denied by Washington — that the US is running low on key munitions, while many of America’s top generals have warned their bosses that there are no longer many good military options available. As per one report, Centcom has solicited, via email, “new creative and unconventional ways to … punish Iran”, from defence experts. In plain speak, there is policy chaos in Washington. Moreover, there are reports that the Saudis have asked the US to give diplomacy with Iran another try. Riyadh realises that immense destruction will engulf the region should another round of hostilities break out.

It is very difficult for leaders to admit they are wrong. But it is crucial for Mr Trump to realise that Operation ‘Epic Fury’ has been an epic failure. The US has achieved none of its objectives. Iran evidently retains its nuclear capabilities; it has pledged to continue supporting its regional armed allies; and its control over the Strait of Hormuz has only increased since the war began. In addition, the American and Israeli dream of regime change has completely backfired: the pragmatic old guard — assassinated by the US and Israel — has been replaced by an ideologically driven and much more hard-line new leadership.

From this point on, the US should shun its violent rhetoric and approach the Iranians with respect. Pakistan, which Iran has identified as a key mediator, can press on with its efforts to revive the Islamabad MoU. If it decides to continue with more threats, Washington will only sink deeper into the Iran quagmire, as the hard-liners in the Islamic Republic’s establishment seem determined to fight on.

Published in Dawn, August 5th, 2026

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